Closing Line Value

Many gamblers come to me asking for any sorts of tips I may have to increase their return on investment. Apart from paying for picks we provide, the next best thing is diversify their portfolio of outs. This will facilitate line shopping, which in turn allows getting the best possible odds when getting down.

Securing the market’s best line, by itself, will increase return on investment far more than becoming a marginally better handicapper, sharps referring to this as Closing Line Value, or CLV. The general theory states that if consistently beating last lines available before games start, it will be profitable in the long run. Details and logistics are a bit more complicated, but that is the gist.

In order to get the CLV, the ability to “line shop” is required, obviously through having access to multiple outs, thus accepting that some books are far better than others. Some post more lines, hire additional customer service, or list alternative banking options, and occasionally hanging intentionally weak odds (if knowing what to look at).

As a professional, the number one priority should be to lock in at the best possible value when placing bets. This is the main advantage over the House, so create a portfolio containing the best recommended online sportsbooks, thus ensuring it’s never necessary to accept a bad line, as others usually provide better options. Operators rely on clients taking poor odds, so multiple outs reduces the need to settle for reduced returns, while increasing overall gains from portfolios.

Once consistently identifying good CLV, the next step is to embrace the variance. If the goal is to win 55% of the time, that means 45 bets out of 100 will be losers. There aren’t any get rich quick schemes in sports betting, the sole successful strategy being grinding out a few percentage points above break even and applying that to larger sample sizes.

A return on investment of 5% may not seem like much, but apply it to $1Million dollars in action and all of a sudden it equals a luxurious German-engineered automobile. Embrace losses identical to wins, because in the end, the most important “victory” a gambler can have is heading into games with the best price available.